A Novel Three-State Model of Markov Analysis to Reliability Prediction for Public Transit Train Systems 北京时间2015年3月8日上午10点到11点

James Li
James Li is a Lead RAMS Engineer in Bombardier Transportation, AME Division, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. He has more than twenty years of experience in Mass Transit Industry including RAMS Engineering, Mass Transit Vehicle Engineering and Project Management. His interests are in the fields of Reliability Calculations, FMECA, FTA and Electric Circuit Reliability and Safety Analysis. His experience i...read more


Important Note for Chinese Webinar Date and Time: China Standard Time (CST) Sun, Mar 8, 2015 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM 北京时间2015年3月8日上午10点到11点 Abstract: A novel three-state reliability model of Markovian approach is introduced to calculate the MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure)/MTBSAF (Mean Time Between Service-Affecting Failures) for M-out-of-N redundant units consisting of three operational states: full operation state, functional operation state and failed state. In this three-state reliability model, a transition matrix is introduced to easily and correctly establish a set of state differentiating equations. Laplace transform are also introduced to simplify the calculating process for the probability function. This model makes the Markovian analysis for three state operational systems become more simple, clear and robust. The concluded MTBF/MTBSAF formula is robust enough and can be used in all three-state models without performing another tedious calculation again. This model is illustrated by four different types of M-out-of-N Redundant units installed in the Public Transit Train: One of Two units, Two of Three voting units, Three of Four voting units and Two of Four voting units. The limitation and boundary of this method is also discussed and elaborated in the presentation. Speaker Bio: James Li is Lead RAMS Engineer in Bombardier Transportation, Systems Division, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. He has more than twenty years experience in Mass Transit Industry including RAMS Engineering, Mass Transit Vehicles System Engineering and Project Management. He is a Senior Member of American Society of Quality and member of Society of Reliability Engineers. He is a licensed Professional Engineer of Ontario (P.Eng), ASQ Certified Reliability Engineer (CRE).

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