Natural and Man-Made Hazards: Risk Analysis, Systems, and Emergent Conditions

Vilas and James Mujumdar and Lambert
Vilas Mujumdar is an independent engineering consultant in the United States. He was the Program Director and Cluster leader for three Earthquake Engineering Research Centers funded by the US National Science Foundation. He coordinated integrated multidisciplinary research in earthquake engineering with other divisions of NSF, and public policy research for other Engineering Research Centers. more


In part 1 of this webinar, we describe how natural hazard risk is characterized by the probability of occurrence of a hazard event, the magnitude of the event, degree of exposure of a built environment to the hazard and the system vulnerabilities. While hurricanes may be regularly occurring, damaging earthquakes occur at long and irregular intervals. Codes of practice and regulations tend to treat these hazards similarly as they are developed to minimize the risk to occupants and provide safety for evacuation. As the focus of codes is a particular structure (building, bridge, etc.), the codes rarely address the system level (e.g., interdependencies of transportation and electrical networks. Though a particular facility may have low damage, the systems could have significant impairment. When extended to communities of engineering and socio-economic systems, the problem requires a complex systems approach. In part 2 of this webinar, we will address emergent and future conditions in risk analysis. Risk has variously been defined in recent history as the probability and severity of adverse effects, as the influence of uncertainty to objectives, etc. We present examples involving energy microgrids and transportation systems where risk is quantified as an influence of scenarios to priorities. Scenarios are comprised of emergent and future conditions. The conditions addressed will include commodity prices, climate, cyber attacks, regulation, ecology, etc. Webinar participants should expect to become acquainted with state-of-the-art progress in risk analysis by agencies, industry, and military. Participants will learn: - What the field of risk analysis might offer for reliability and quality engineering - Tutorial applications including earthquake engineering and provisioning of energy microgrids - Latest principles, applications, and tools of risk analysis

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