Example using “Bayesian” assumptions


Example using “Bayesian” assumptions in proving a new design is X% better.
Suppose my current part is producing failures in the field with a Weibull β=2, η=95 hours.
I have demonstrated that I can reproduce the failure mode in the lab by producing the same β.
I have redesigned the part and placed 8 of the new designed parts on test in the same lab setup.
After a few weeks they have test times of 210, 260, 570, 120, 225, 280 500 and 400 hours with no failures.
How much better is this new part?
One way to demonstrate this is to calculate the MLE η of the 8 times demonstrated on the new designed parts, “assuming” a β=2 and “assuming” 1 failure is imminent:
Therefore, showing you have (conservatively) over 10X better reliability

Example using “Bayesian” assumptions
Previously published in the June 2013 Volume 4, Issue 2 ASQ Reliability Division Newsletter

Picture © B. Poncelet https://bennyponcelet.wordpress.com

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